Thursday, October 25, 2007

Solid Fundamentals Support Commercial Real Estate

WASHINGTON, September 18, 2007 -

Most commercial real estate markets are enjoying relatively low vacancy rates and healthy rent growth from a fundamentally sound economy, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK of the National Association of Realtors®.
NAR Senior Economist Lawrence Yun said, “Commercial real estate responds to economic growth and job creation, which have been fairly strong over the past two years and have created the need for additional commercial space,” he said. “These fundamentals will continue to support commercial real estate markets in 2008. There has not been much overbuilding in the commercial sectors, and investors are more diverse.”
Yun said pricing for some commercial real estate has been at a record high, and capitalization rates have been at historic lows. “Normalization of prices may be occurring, but it isn’t clear what the definition of normal might be in the current market given the repricing of risk in the capital market. In short, the difference between the cash flow on a typical property and its price is close to a maximum, indicating prices may even out.”
A record $257.0 billion was invested in commercial real estate in the first seven months of 2007, up from $146.7 billion in same period in 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million, or of investments in the hospitality sector.
Cindy Chandler of Charlotte, N.C., chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance, said there have been some problems recently regarding the availability of capital. “Over-reaction to credit concerns in the financial markets could limit the availability of capital needed by private investors, but overall the situation does not appear to have significantly impacted institutional-grade commercial properties,” she said. “We're returning to the fundamentals and deal structuring of the mid 90s, and may see some dampening in investment activity, but there is a lot of momentum in commercial real estate.
“We see the commercial sectors holding at a healthy level of activity in most of the country, although there could be some slowing as a result of postponed transactions and delays in decision making.”
The NAR forecast in four major commercial sectors analyses quarterly data for various tracked metro areas. The sectors are the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Metro data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research and Real Capital Analytics.
Office MarketThe office sector is the most favored by investors, with strong rent growth this year. The cost of steel and other factors have helped minimize speculative construction in most markets. The demand for space is expected to remain strong into 2008, and areas with strong job growth are benefiting the most. Older vacated space is lagging on the market in some cities.
Office vacancies are projected to edge up to an average of 12.9 percent in the fourth quarter from 12.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006, and then dip to 12.4 percent by the end of 2008. Annual rent growth in the office sector is forecast at 6.1 percent in 2007 and 3.1 percent next year, after rising 5.2 percent in 2006.
Projections for the third quarter show areas with the lowest office vacancies include New York City; Ventura County, Calif.; Seattle; Los Angeles; Honolulu; and Long Island, N.Y., all with vacancy rates of 9.4 percent or less.
Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should total 53.8 million square feet this year and 65.1 million in 2008, compared with 78.0 million last year.
Office building transaction volume in the first seven months of this year totaled $147.0 billion, a record for the period, which is 53 percent higher than the same period in 2006. Equity funds accounted for 43 percent of office building purchases, followed by private investors at 21 percent.
Industrial Market Although the main driver for the industrial market continues to be the need for warehouse and distribution space, particularly in ports and distribution hubs, the rebirth of the technology sector is fueling demand for flex space, with a marked increase in markets such as San Jose, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; Seattle and Phoenix.
Much of the new industrial supply has been on a build-to-suit basis, and building obsolescence remains a factor for distribution facilities. With tightening availability in many primary markets, users are starting to show greater interest in secondary markets.
Vacancy rates in the industrial sector are likely to average 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter and 9.4 percent by the end of 2008, compared with 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006. Annual rent growth will more than double to 3.9 percent by the end of this year, and is estimated at 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from a 1.4 percent annual rise at the end of last year.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancies include Los Angeles; Albuquerque; Tucson; Orange County, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; and San Francisco, all with vacancy rates of 5.4 percent or less.
Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked will probably total 125.0 million square feet in 2007 and 165.6 million next year, down from 202.8 million in 2006.
Industrial transaction volume in the first seven months of 2007 was $26.8 billion, up 13 percent from the same period in 2006. Private investors accounted for 36 percent of industrial purchases, followed by equity funds at 25 percent.
Retail MarketRecovery in the retail market has been held back by high levels of new supply, but developers appear to have gotten the message. The majority of new space on the market today is in non-regional malls, but new available space should see marked declines in 2008. Credit problems have not yet impacted retail sales, but will be watched closely.
Vacancy rates in the retail sector are expected to rise to 9.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 8.1 percent at the end of 2006; vacancies are forecast at 8.9 percent by the end of next year. Average retail rent is projected to rise 2.9 percent in 2007 and 1.0 percent next year, following a 3.9 percent increase in 2006.
Retail markets with the lowest vacancies include San Francisco; Orange County, Calif.; San Jose, Calif.; Ventura County, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; and Las Vegas, all with vacancy rates of 5.1 percent or less.
Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets should be 12.1 million square feet this year and 19.0 million in 2008, up from 10.7 million last year.
Retail transaction volume in the first seven months of this year totaled $37.4 billion, up from $22.3 billion in same period in 2006. Private investors accounted for 35 percent of transaction volume, followed by institutional investors at 22 percent and foreign investors, 18 percent.
Multifamily MarketThe apartment rental market – multifamily housing – anecdotally appears to be impacted by an influx of single-family homes being offered for rent, cutting into the demand for apartment rentals. In addition, condos are being converted into rental units, particularly in markets such as Washington, D.C., and several areas of Florida.
At the same time, potential first-time home buyers are hesitant and staying in the rental market, supporting multifamily fundamentals until the lure of homeownership returns, the housing cycle changes and more buyers enter the housing market.
Multifamily vacancy rates are likely to average 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the same as the fourth quarter of 2006, and then ease to 5.6 percent by the end of next year. Average rent is expected increase 2.9 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2008, after a 4.1 percent rise last year.
Multifamily net absorption will probably total 209,200 units in 59 tracked metro areas this year, down from 229,400 in 2006, but increase to 234,400 in 2008.
The areas with the lowest apartment vacancies include Northern New Jersey, Salt Lake City, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Minneapolis and Nashville, all with vacancy rates of 2.7 percent or less.
Multifamily transactions in the first seven months of this year totaled $46.3 billion, compared with $41.5 billion in the same period in 2006. Half of the purchases were by private investors, while condo converters accounted for only three percent of acquisitions.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the Realtors® Commercial Alliance. The RCA, formed by NAR in 1999, serves the needs of the commercial market and the commercial constituency within NAR, including commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and NAR affiliate organizations.
Organizations in the RCA include the CCIM Institute, the Institute of Real Estate Management, the Realtors® Land Institute, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and the Counselors of Real Estate. The RCA also provides commercial products and services.
Nearly 140,000 NAR members offer commercial services, and 73,000 of those are currently members of the RCA.


The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2007/solid_fundamentals_support_commercial_market.html?&WT.mc_t=LS102407&WT.mc_n=Comm

Friday, October 19, 2007

Fed President Calls This Housing Cycle Very Unique

Daily Real Estate News October 19, 2007

The current U.S. housing cycle diverged from past experience because the boom was driven by the growth of the subprime market and securitization of it, St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole told a monetary policy conference.

"[It] all worked as long as house prices were rising — and it all collapses when house prices stop rising," Poole said. "Obviously, this segment of the market, it is going to be a long time before it comes back."

Poole is a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate setting committee this year.

"I think this housing cycle is ... in many respects is quite different from previous housing cycles, and has unique characteristics from the housing cycles from the postwar period," he said. "And [it] is unlikely to give us much insight into the housing market for the longer run."

Source: Reuters News (10/18/07)

See original article at http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pages/News2007101906

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Is This The Time To Buy?

The Long View
by Lawrence Yun, Vice President, NAR Research


“How much have real estate investors lost due to the housing market bust?”

That was the (highly loaded) question posed to me recently by a producer of one of the major evening news programs. The show wanted to run a story about the "pains" being felt in the market.

Hmm. Well, exactly how much real pain are we talking about? Let's look at a couple of examples. An investor who bought a property in Las Vegas five years ago would be ahead by $150,000; up $200,000 in Miami. The average investor nationwide – up $54,000. Only the recent buyers (flippers) who bought last year in few specific markets would have encountered a loss.

Not All Losses Are Created Equal
I’m not discounting the discomfort of those who lost big, especially lenders and hedge funds who had large exposures to subprime loans. Investors in homebuilder stocks have certainly experienced pains. But nearly all real estate investors who have a reasonable holding period are doing quite fine. Some of these fortunate buyers who got into the market several years ago will still consider a modest give back as a loss without considering the large gains reaped during the housing boom. That’s the nature of the human mind. A gain of $190,000 in Miami feels like a $10,000 loss considering that the gain had been $200,000.

A Home is Not a Stock Certificate -- Thank God!
Foreclosures are rising and construction workers are being laid off. REALTORS® are feeling the pinch as well. The median income of a typical REALTOR® has been falling due to the correction in sales transactions. However, consumers and homeowners who are in it for the long-term are once again coming out well ahead.

Because of the power of leveraging, $10,000 used for a down payment on a typically priced home in the United States at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent will return $110,000 after 10 years. The same $10,000 invested in the stock market appreciating 10 percent annually will result in $23,600. No wonder the data from the Federal Reserve show consistent results year-after-year of the staggering difference in net worth between homeowners and renters. A typical homeowner had $184,400 in net worth versus only $4,000 for a typical renter.

The Spooky Thing
The lack of buyer confidence to enter the market has been the one principal reason in holding back home sales. Many would-be buyers are spooked of a possible home price decline. And the media is fueling that fear. Some of the most popular market gurus who offer their advice on television and other media say so. Caution is in order, however. As a recent Barron’s article pointed out, stock picks made by one such expert actually underperformed the market.

Opportunities to Seize
It’s also important to point out that times of crisis often turn out to have been times of opportunity in hindsight. With over four million net new job additions in the past two years– the time frame during which home sales have steadily fallen – a significant pent-up demand has developed. Home sales and home prices will be higher in 2008 compared to 2007. And, as with any investment, look longer term. Those investing in a home and keeping it for a typical holding period of six to ten years will likely see their investment pay off; those homes will have been a good investment.

As for stocks, they are not the enemy of real estate. Many REALTORS® own stocks. (So do many economists!) The latest NAR research on vacation-home buyers reveals that many of them rely on stock market wealth to fund that second-home purchase. Stocks and real estate both promote the importance of private ownership.

Where to Throw the Darts
Of course, with housing figures down, all eyes at looking to the stock market. Indeed, the stock market is at an all-time high. That's terrific in and of itself and reflects confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Just be careful about taking specific advice from any hyper-emotional TV personality. Darts should not be thrown at publicity posters of any "mad money" host. You’ll likely have just as good of luck by reining in your emotions (and money) and throwing them randomly on the financial pages of your newspaper for your next stock pickings.

Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Realtors® Applaud House Passage of Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief

WASHINGTON, October 04, 2007 - The National Association of Realtors® praised the U.S. House of Representatives for today’s passage of the Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act, H.R. 3648, by a vote of 386 to 27. Since the early 1990s, NAR has advocated for repeal of the current law, which forces individuals to pay an income tax when they have had a loan forgiven or have had to foreclose because of their inability to pay their mortgage.

“Congress made a good decision today that will affect many Americans who find themselves in a truly bad situation,” said NAR President Pat V. Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt. “Changing the IRS code is an issue of fundamental fairness. It would relieve a tax burden at a time when an individual or family has experienced a true economic loss arising from the sale or loss of their home. These families are already in financial distress and are most likely unable to pay additional taxes.”

NAR has expressed its commitment to continue efforts to make the horror of losing a home less burdensome for families. “This is not only about the subprime turmoil we are currently experiencing. This is also about families who have lost their home or a need to sell that home for less than the amount owed on their home mortgage because of job loss, divorce, health issues, a decrease in the value of the home or other unfortunate circumstances. Clearly it is unfair to tax people on phantom income when they most likely have no cash with which to pay the tax,” said Combs.

The current tax code requires a lender who forgives debt to provide a Form 1099 to the IRS stating the amount the borrower has been forgiven. This disclosure applies whether it is a short sale, foreclosure, deed in lieu of foreclosure or any similar arrangement that relieves the borrower of the obligation to pay some portion of their debt. If the property is sold at foreclosure or is sold for less than was borrowed, that difference is considered income and is subject to the tax.

H.R. 3648 would ensure that any amount forgiven on mortgage debt secured by a principal residence will not be taxed. The legislation has a provision to safeguard against abuses. That provision is similar to one that already exists for commercial real estate owners and would treat commercial and residential property equally.

“Realtors® are about building communities, not just selling homes. We must work together to prevent the dream of homeownership from becoming a nightmare” said Combs. “This is just one step that will help families get on with their lives and begin rebuilding their economic security.”

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.


© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® I Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500

Friday, October 5, 2007

The Latest Information on the Phantom Tax Law Revisions

We've all be waiting to see what would transpire and finally it appears that the vote against the phantom tax to prevent mortgage lenders from issuing a W4 for the loss they accept in a short sale, foreclosure or rescindence of deed in lieu of foreclosure has passed. As stated below in the National Association of Realtors Daily Real Estate News, homeowners who are in financial crisis will not be faced with unfair tax liability. Up until now, homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure and short sale would be faced with a W4 for the difference in the mortgage balance and the amount actually settled on resulting in an income tax obligation. This is the best news I've heard with regard to these pressing issues caused by the reduction in property values we have experienced in the past two years combined with the increase in foreclosures across the country.

Daily Real Estate News | October 5, 2007
House Votes to Eliminate 'Phantom Tax'
The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Thursday to get rid of a tax burden for home owners who have had a loan forgiven or foreclosed on their home because they were unable to make their mortgage payments. The Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act, H.R. 3648, passed by a vote of 386 to 27. Similar legislation is making its way through the Senate.

Since the early 1990s, NAR has supported such measures to eliminate the "phantom tax" on financially-strapped home owners.

“Congress made a good decision that will affect many Americans who find themselves in a truly bad situation,” says NAR President Pat V. Combs. “Changing the IRS code is an issue of fundamental fairness. It would relieve a tax burden at a time when an individual or family has experienced a true economic loss arising from the sale or loss of their home. These families are already in financial distress and are most likely unable to pay additional taxes.”

The current tax code requires a lender who forgives debt to provide a Form 1099 to the IRS stating the amount the borrower has been forgiven. This disclosure applies whether it is a short sale, foreclosure, deed in lieu of foreclosure or any similar arrangement that relieves the borrower of the obligation to pay some portion of their debt. If the property is sold at foreclosure or is sold for less than was borrowed, that difference is considered income and is subject to the tax.

H.R. 3648 would ensure that any amount forgiven on mortgage debt secured by a principal residence will not be taxed. The legislation has a provision to safeguard against abuses. That provision is similar to one that already exists for commercial real estate owners and would treat commercial and residential property equally.

"This is not only about the subprime turmoil we are currently experiencing," Combs says. "This is also about families who have lost their home or a need to sell that home for less than the amount owed on their home mortgage because of job loss, divorce, health issues, a decrease in the value of the home or other unfortunate circumstances. Clearly it is unfair to tax people on phantom income when they most likely have no cash with which to pay the tax."

In other news, another bill has been sent to the House Judiciary Committee that would revise the bankruptcy code to allow judges to order mortgage lenders to ease terms for home owners in bankruptcy proceedings. Currently, mortgage lenders can foreclose against a home owner in default 90 days after the filing of bankruptcy.

— REALTOR® Magazine Online

Thursday, October 4, 2007

GREAT News for a Sluggish Real Estate Market!

Historically when the real estate market goes down, the stock market goes up and vice versa.

I was so pleased last night, to see that Lennar Homes had an increase in their stocks up 7.25 (mol). This is some of the first signs of a shifting market as the market actually fell as a whole by almost 76 points.

I have been saying for the past few weeks that it is imperative to buy now - well, here's some proof that what I've said is true! It is important to act now before the rest of the world jumps on board and the market becomes a seller's heaven again - and it will, rest assured.

If you have been waiting for the bottom to fall out, it has already happened. The real estate market is starting to come back and it is crucial to make your deals NOW before everyone else gets the message that they don't have to take a low offer and that there are more buyers than there were.

If you are looking for a home in Tampa Bay, I am a 20-year resident of the area and welcome the opportunity to find you the home of your dreams. If you are looking for a keen investment, now is the time to act! Don't wait for the rest of the world to jump on board or you will have passed up the best opportunites!

The market may end up slow to recover but as soon as word is out that we are on the recovery end, there will be a stampede of buyers who have been waiting for their golden opportunity.

Even though this very encouraging news is in my face, I keep seeing articles in the media that contradict this. The following article entitled "How to Play the Real Estate Bounce-Back" was printed in the October 2007 issue of Business 2.0, which states on the cover that it is their "final issue". You can read the article by going to http://mag1.olivesoftware.com/am/getBookEnc.asp?Path=QlNOLzIwMDcvMTAvMDE=&BookCollection=BSN_AM&ReaderStyle=BSNMag&browserWindowWidth=1430&browserWindowHeight=850

The article states that there are 10 cities that represent the strongest investment potential and Tampa is not listed. This may be the way it was when the article was written but our Tampa market is already experiencing an recovery so all the media had better be prepared.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Happenings this month in Channelside District, Tampa

I found this article at Fangoria.com about an upcoming event that will be taking place in Channelside soon for Halloween! I hope you find it interesting!

October 1: Founder talks FL Halloweenpalooza horror fest

Festival founder and coordinator Rick Danford of Enigma Films contacted Fango to give us the details on his Halloweenapalooza 2007/Halloween Horror Picture Show, which runs October 19-20 in Tampa, FL. Produced in partnership with Channelside Cinemas and IMAX, the first annual Halloweenpalooza and fifth annual independent horror film festival will feature celebrity guests (including scream queen Tiffany Shepis and screenwriter/actor Trent Haaga) doing the signing-and-picture thing, trick-or-treating, a scavenger hunt, vendors, live music and more.

Danford says of the festivities, which kick off at 6 p.m. on Friday the 19th at Channelside Cinemas (615 Channelside Drive), “Every year, we try to bring to the Central Florida area the very best the indie horror world has to offer. We’ve featured films from all over the world, and many have made their festival debut with us. Our basic function is to provide an outlet for the indie horror filmmaker to screen his or her work in front of the fans and to also give them a chance to meet, greet and network with those fans, as well as other filmmakers.”

Films screening this year at HHPS07 include Marcus Koch’s killer-clown pic 100 TEARS (with the director set to introduce), Alan Rowe Kelly’s THE BLOOD SHED, Anthony Falcon’s 99 PIECES, Alex Orr’s BLOOD CAR, THE BUNKER (including a Q&A with Miami-based director Joe Monks), DEATH ON DEMAND (introduced by star Krista Grotte), GIMME SKELTER, GHOST MONTH, HOODOO FOR VOODOO (debut of a re-edited version), the titillating-sounding strippers-vs.-the-undead flick ZOMBIES! ZOMBIES! ZOMBIES!, a short film program and more.

“I am just a huge fan of the genre,” says Danford of his approach to the festival, “and I love giving as many of these hardworking filmmakers their chance to get some feedback and to allow their films to be seen by the people who appreciate them most. They deserve it.” For more info, visit the fest’s official site linked above. —Sean Decker

What is your opinion of the current real estate trends?