Daily Real Estate News October 19, 2007
The current U.S. housing cycle diverged from past experience because the boom was driven by the growth of the subprime market and securitization of it, St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole told a monetary policy conference.
"[It] all worked as long as house prices were rising — and it all collapses when house prices stop rising," Poole said. "Obviously, this segment of the market, it is going to be a long time before it comes back."
Poole is a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate setting committee this year.
"I think this housing cycle is ... in many respects is quite different from previous housing cycles, and has unique characteristics from the housing cycles from the postwar period," he said. "And [it] is unlikely to give us much insight into the housing market for the longer run."
Source: Reuters News (10/18/07)
See original article at http://www.realtor.org/rmodaily.nsf/pages/News2007101906
Friday, October 19, 2007
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Is This The Time To Buy?
The Long View
by Lawrence Yun, Vice President, NAR Research
“How much have real estate investors lost due to the housing market bust?”
That was the (highly loaded) question posed to me recently by a producer of one of the major evening news programs. The show wanted to run a story about the "pains" being felt in the market.
Hmm. Well, exactly how much real pain are we talking about? Let's look at a couple of examples. An investor who bought a property in Las Vegas five years ago would be ahead by $150,000; up $200,000 in Miami. The average investor nationwide – up $54,000. Only the recent buyers (flippers) who bought last year in few specific markets would have encountered a loss.
Not All Losses Are Created Equal
I’m not discounting the discomfort of those who lost big, especially lenders and hedge funds who had large exposures to subprime loans. Investors in homebuilder stocks have certainly experienced pains. But nearly all real estate investors who have a reasonable holding period are doing quite fine. Some of these fortunate buyers who got into the market several years ago will still consider a modest give back as a loss without considering the large gains reaped during the housing boom. That’s the nature of the human mind. A gain of $190,000 in Miami feels like a $10,000 loss considering that the gain had been $200,000.
A Home is Not a Stock Certificate -- Thank God!
Foreclosures are rising and construction workers are being laid off. REALTORS® are feeling the pinch as well. The median income of a typical REALTOR® has been falling due to the correction in sales transactions. However, consumers and homeowners who are in it for the long-term are once again coming out well ahead.
Because of the power of leveraging, $10,000 used for a down payment on a typically priced home in the United States at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent will return $110,000 after 10 years. The same $10,000 invested in the stock market appreciating 10 percent annually will result in $23,600. No wonder the data from the Federal Reserve show consistent results year-after-year of the staggering difference in net worth between homeowners and renters. A typical homeowner had $184,400 in net worth versus only $4,000 for a typical renter.
The Spooky Thing
The lack of buyer confidence to enter the market has been the one principal reason in holding back home sales. Many would-be buyers are spooked of a possible home price decline. And the media is fueling that fear. Some of the most popular market gurus who offer their advice on television and other media say so. Caution is in order, however. As a recent Barron’s article pointed out, stock picks made by one such expert actually underperformed the market.
Opportunities to Seize
It’s also important to point out that times of crisis often turn out to have been times of opportunity in hindsight. With over four million net new job additions in the past two years– the time frame during which home sales have steadily fallen – a significant pent-up demand has developed. Home sales and home prices will be higher in 2008 compared to 2007. And, as with any investment, look longer term. Those investing in a home and keeping it for a typical holding period of six to ten years will likely see their investment pay off; those homes will have been a good investment.
As for stocks, they are not the enemy of real estate. Many REALTORS® own stocks. (So do many economists!) The latest NAR research on vacation-home buyers reveals that many of them rely on stock market wealth to fund that second-home purchase. Stocks and real estate both promote the importance of private ownership.
Where to Throw the Darts
Of course, with housing figures down, all eyes at looking to the stock market. Indeed, the stock market is at an all-time high. That's terrific in and of itself and reflects confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Just be careful about taking specific advice from any hyper-emotional TV personality. Darts should not be thrown at publicity posters of any "mad money" host. You’ll likely have just as good of luck by reining in your emotions (and money) and throwing them randomly on the financial pages of your newspaper for your next stock pickings.
Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500
by Lawrence Yun, Vice President, NAR Research
“How much have real estate investors lost due to the housing market bust?”
That was the (highly loaded) question posed to me recently by a producer of one of the major evening news programs. The show wanted to run a story about the "pains" being felt in the market.
Hmm. Well, exactly how much real pain are we talking about? Let's look at a couple of examples. An investor who bought a property in Las Vegas five years ago would be ahead by $150,000; up $200,000 in Miami. The average investor nationwide – up $54,000. Only the recent buyers (flippers) who bought last year in few specific markets would have encountered a loss.
Not All Losses Are Created Equal
I’m not discounting the discomfort of those who lost big, especially lenders and hedge funds who had large exposures to subprime loans. Investors in homebuilder stocks have certainly experienced pains. But nearly all real estate investors who have a reasonable holding period are doing quite fine. Some of these fortunate buyers who got into the market several years ago will still consider a modest give back as a loss without considering the large gains reaped during the housing boom. That’s the nature of the human mind. A gain of $190,000 in Miami feels like a $10,000 loss considering that the gain had been $200,000.
A Home is Not a Stock Certificate -- Thank God!
Foreclosures are rising and construction workers are being laid off. REALTORS® are feeling the pinch as well. The median income of a typical REALTOR® has been falling due to the correction in sales transactions. However, consumers and homeowners who are in it for the long-term are once again coming out well ahead.
Because of the power of leveraging, $10,000 used for a down payment on a typically priced home in the United States at a typical appreciation rate of 5 percent will return $110,000 after 10 years. The same $10,000 invested in the stock market appreciating 10 percent annually will result in $23,600. No wonder the data from the Federal Reserve show consistent results year-after-year of the staggering difference in net worth between homeowners and renters. A typical homeowner had $184,400 in net worth versus only $4,000 for a typical renter.
The Spooky Thing
The lack of buyer confidence to enter the market has been the one principal reason in holding back home sales. Many would-be buyers are spooked of a possible home price decline. And the media is fueling that fear. Some of the most popular market gurus who offer their advice on television and other media say so. Caution is in order, however. As a recent Barron’s article pointed out, stock picks made by one such expert actually underperformed the market.
Opportunities to Seize
It’s also important to point out that times of crisis often turn out to have been times of opportunity in hindsight. With over four million net new job additions in the past two years– the time frame during which home sales have steadily fallen – a significant pent-up demand has developed. Home sales and home prices will be higher in 2008 compared to 2007. And, as with any investment, look longer term. Those investing in a home and keeping it for a typical holding period of six to ten years will likely see their investment pay off; those homes will have been a good investment.
As for stocks, they are not the enemy of real estate. Many REALTORS® own stocks. (So do many economists!) The latest NAR research on vacation-home buyers reveals that many of them rely on stock market wealth to fund that second-home purchase. Stocks and real estate both promote the importance of private ownership.
Where to Throw the Darts
Of course, with housing figures down, all eyes at looking to the stock market. Indeed, the stock market is at an all-time high. That's terrific in and of itself and reflects confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. Just be careful about taking specific advice from any hyper-emotional TV personality. Darts should not be thrown at publicity posters of any "mad money" host. You’ll likely have just as good of luck by reining in your emotions (and money) and throwing them randomly on the financial pages of your newspaper for your next stock pickings.
Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL. 60611-4087
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020
1-800-874-6500
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Realtors® Applaud House Passage of Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief
WASHINGTON, October 04, 2007 - The National Association of Realtors® praised the U.S. House of Representatives for today’s passage of the Mortgage Cancellation Tax Relief Act, H.R. 3648, by a vote of 386 to 27. Since the early 1990s, NAR has advocated for repeal of the current law, which forces individuals to pay an income tax when they have had a loan forgiven or have had to foreclose because of their inability to pay their mortgage.
“Congress made a good decision today that will affect many Americans who find themselves in a truly bad situation,” said NAR President Pat V. Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt. “Changing the IRS code is an issue of fundamental fairness. It would relieve a tax burden at a time when an individual or family has experienced a true economic loss arising from the sale or loss of their home. These families are already in financial distress and are most likely unable to pay additional taxes.”
NAR has expressed its commitment to continue efforts to make the horror of losing a home less burdensome for families. “This is not only about the subprime turmoil we are currently experiencing. This is also about families who have lost their home or a need to sell that home for less than the amount owed on their home mortgage because of job loss, divorce, health issues, a decrease in the value of the home or other unfortunate circumstances. Clearly it is unfair to tax people on phantom income when they most likely have no cash with which to pay the tax,” said Combs.
The current tax code requires a lender who forgives debt to provide a Form 1099 to the IRS stating the amount the borrower has been forgiven. This disclosure applies whether it is a short sale, foreclosure, deed in lieu of foreclosure or any similar arrangement that relieves the borrower of the obligation to pay some portion of their debt. If the property is sold at foreclosure or is sold for less than was borrowed, that difference is considered income and is subject to the tax.
H.R. 3648 would ensure that any amount forgiven on mortgage debt secured by a principal residence will not be taxed. The legislation has a provision to safeguard against abuses. That provision is similar to one that already exists for commercial real estate owners and would treat commercial and residential property equally.
“Realtors® are about building communities, not just selling homes. We must work together to prevent the dream of homeownership from becoming a nightmare” said Combs. “This is just one step that will help families get on with their lives and begin rebuilding their economic security.”
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® I Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
“Congress made a good decision today that will affect many Americans who find themselves in a truly bad situation,” said NAR President Pat V. Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt. “Changing the IRS code is an issue of fundamental fairness. It would relieve a tax burden at a time when an individual or family has experienced a true economic loss arising from the sale or loss of their home. These families are already in financial distress and are most likely unable to pay additional taxes.”
NAR has expressed its commitment to continue efforts to make the horror of losing a home less burdensome for families. “This is not only about the subprime turmoil we are currently experiencing. This is also about families who have lost their home or a need to sell that home for less than the amount owed on their home mortgage because of job loss, divorce, health issues, a decrease in the value of the home or other unfortunate circumstances. Clearly it is unfair to tax people on phantom income when they most likely have no cash with which to pay the tax,” said Combs.
The current tax code requires a lender who forgives debt to provide a Form 1099 to the IRS stating the amount the borrower has been forgiven. This disclosure applies whether it is a short sale, foreclosure, deed in lieu of foreclosure or any similar arrangement that relieves the borrower of the obligation to pay some portion of their debt. If the property is sold at foreclosure or is sold for less than was borrowed, that difference is considered income and is subject to the tax.
H.R. 3648 would ensure that any amount forgiven on mortgage debt secured by a principal residence will not be taxed. The legislation has a provision to safeguard against abuses. That provision is similar to one that already exists for commercial real estate owners and would treat commercial and residential property equally.
“Realtors® are about building communities, not just selling homes. We must work together to prevent the dream of homeownership from becoming a nightmare” said Combs. “This is just one step that will help families get on with their lives and begin rebuilding their economic security.”
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
© Copyright NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® I Headquarters: 430 North Michigan Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611
DC Office: 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20001-2020 I 1-800-874-6500
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